Wins out of 100 simulated elections

How to read this chart

What you see

One square = one simulated election, out of 100, coloured by the camp that won it.
Solid: the camp’s main candidate.
Hatched: another candidate of the same camp, when they are the one running (Bardella instead of Le Pen, for instance).
%Runs: chance of being on the ballot. Makes runoff: finishing in the top two. Wins: winning the runoff.

Where the number comes from

Who runs? Each simulation first draws the candidates, using probabilities published with their reasons. An absent candidate’s votes go to the candidates closest to them.
Starting point: today’s polling average, with its own margin.
Historical correction: the front-runners are pulled towards the field, as in past campaigns (10 of 11 front-runners fell back).
Uncertainty: what can still move before the vote, plus an error shared by all polls, with surprises like in 2002.
Two rounds: the top two qualify, then the runoff is simulated.
Count: 20,000 simulations, scaled to 100 squares.

Today

RN: 81 wins out of 100 simulated elections, with 173 days to go before the first round.

RN81 Le Pen 70Bardella 11 (possible stand-in)
Centrist bloc10 Philippe 9Attal 1 (possible stand-in)
Place publique-PS6 Glucksmann 6
Mainstream right3 Retailleau 2Lisnard 1 (possible stand-in)

Chance of running, making the runoff and winning, in %, by camp
Candidate	Runsi	Makes runoff	Wins
RN			81%
Marine Le Pen RN	85%	76%	70%
Jordan Bardella RN	15%	13%	11%
Centrist bloc			10%
Édouard Philippe Horizons	80%	26%	9%
Gabriel Attal Renaissance	55%	4%	1%
Raphaël Glucksmann Place publique	90%	26%	6%
Mainstream right			3%
Bruno Retailleau LR	60%	5%	2%
David Lisnard Nouvelle Énergie	45%	5%	1%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon LFI	95%	41%	<1%
Éric Zemmour Reconquête	74%	2%	<1%
Other candidates	45–90%	<1%	<1%

Candidate scenarios: the most likely field and alternatives

How the forecast has changed

How to read this chart

What you see

One line per camp: its chance of winning, week by week.
A note: a campaign event. Hover for the date and the source.
A dotted vertical line: the simulated lineup changed that day.

Where the number comes from

The line is replayed. For each past week, the whole calculation is run again with only the polls published by then.
Same rules as today: same lineup, same candidacy probabilities. A move in the line comes from the polls, never from a change to the model.
A camp = the sum of its candidates’ chances. A candidate not yet polled at a date is left out of that point.

6 months 12 months All

RN
Centrist bloc
Place publique-PS
Mainstream right
LFI
Debout!

Chance of winning, in %, one row per month.
Date	RN	Centrist bloc	Place publique-PS	Mainstream right	LFI	Debout!
Oct 27, 2026	81%	10%	6%	3%	<1%	<1%
Oct 6, 2026	73%	17%	6%	2%	2%	<1%
Sep 1, 2026	68%	20%	8%	2%	1%	<1%
Aug 4, 2026	53%	30%	8%	3%	5%	<1%
Jul 7, 2026	49%	33%	9%	4%	3%	<1%
Jun 2, 2026	50%	31%	11%	3%	2%	<1%
May 5, 2026	29%	38%	15%	7%	7%	2%
Apr 7, 2026	27%	39%	15%	7%	8%	2%
Mar 3, 2026	34%	30%	18%	5%	9%	2%
Feb 3, 2026	32%	29%	19%	5%	10%	2%
Jan 6, 2026	30%	31%	18%	6%	10%	2%
Dec 2, 2025	29%	30%	19%	6%	11%	2%
Nov 4, 2025	27%	32%	17%	7%	11%	2%
Oct 7, 2025	25%	31%	19%	8%	11%	2%
Sep 2, 2025	23%	36%	16%	9%	12%	3%
Aug 5, 2025	21%	37%	17%	9%	12%	3%
Jul 1, 2025	20%	37%	16%	10%	12%	3%
Jun 3, 2025	16%	38%	19%	10%	11%	3%
May 6, 2025	18%	37%	19%	9%	13%	3%
Apr 1, 2025	25%	34%	20%	—	13%	5%
Mar 4, 2025	22%	36%	22%	—	12%	5%
Feb 4, 2025	21%	36%	21%	—	14%	5%
Jan 7, 2025	20%	35%	23%	—	13%	5%
Dec 3, 2024	18%	35%	23%	—	14%	5%
Nov 5, 2024	17%	36%	22%	—	15%	5%
Oct 1, 2024	18%	35%	23%	—	15%	6%
Sep 3, 2024	28%	40%	—	—	21%	6%
Aug 6, 2024	28%	39%	—	—	22%	7%
Jul 2, 2024	30%	37%	—	—	19%	6%
Jun 4, 2024	31%	37%	—	—	19%	7%
May 7, 2024	30%	37%	—	—	20%	7%
Apr 23, 2024	34%	40%	—	—	18%	—

First-round polling average

How to read this chart

What you see

The line: the polling average, candidate by candidate.
The light band: an 80% chance that the true average of the day lies inside. It is not the election-day forecast, which is much wider (see the scenarios).
One dot = one poll, larger and darker when it weighs more in the average.

Where the number comes from

Weigh: a poll counts according to how recent it is, its sample size (capped at 3,000) and the pollster’s rating. Polls from the last 14 days carry 88% of the weight.
Correct: a pollster that always gives a candidate a little more (house effect) is brought back towards the others.
Translate: a poll testing a different lineup is brought to the most probable one; absent candidates’ votes go to the politically closest.
Smooth: a Kalman filter treats opinion as something that moves a little each day, and polls as noisy measurements of it. It works on the ratios between candidates, so the total is always 100%.

Today

Le Pen stands at 35.5% in the average, from 75 polls and 319 tested lineups.

Le Pen · RN
Mélenchon · LFI
Philippe · Horizons
Glucksmann · Place publique
Retailleau · LR
Zemmour · Reconquête
Tondelier · Les Écologistes
Dupont-Aignan · Debout la France
Roussel · PCF
Arthaud · LO

Average and 80% range, in % of valid votes, one row per week.
Date	Le Pen	Mélenchon	Philippe	Glucksmann	Retailleau	Zemmour	Tondelier	Dupont-Aignan	Roussel	Arthaud
Oct 27	35.5 33.0–37.7	17.0 15.6–18.5	15.7 14.3–17.2	13.4 12.2–14.7	7.3 6.5–8.2	4.2 3.7–4.7	2.4 2.1–2.7	1.9 1.7–2.2	1.8 1.6–2.1	0.7 0.6–0.8
Oct 20	35.5 34.4–36.5	16.8 16.1–17.6	15.8 15.1–16.5	13.6 12.9–14.2	7.3 6.8–7.7	4.1 3.8–4.4	2.5 2.3–2.7	1.9 1.8–2.1	1.9 1.7–2.1	0.7 0.6–0.8
Oct 13	35.7 34.5–36.9	16.5 15.7–17.2	15.9 15.3–16.8	13.1 12.3–13.7	7.4 6.9–7.9	4.1 3.8–4.4	2.7 2.4–2.9	2.0 1.8–2.2	1.9 1.7–2.1	0.7 0.6–0.8
Oct 6	36.0 34.6–37.3	16.9 16.0–17.8	16.4 15.6–17.3	11.5 10.7–12.2	7.5 6.9–8.0	4.1 3.8–4.5	2.8 2.5–3.1	2.0 1.8–2.2	2.0 1.8–2.2	0.7 0.6–0.8
Sep 29	35.3 34.0–36.5	16.8 15.8–17.6	17.5 16.5–18.3	10.8 10.2–11.5	7.6 7.0–8.1	4.2 3.8–4.5	3.0 2.7–3.3	2.0 1.8–2.2	2.1 1.9–2.4	0.8 0.7–0.9
Sep 22	35.1 33.5–36.5	17.1 16.2–18.0	17.1 16.2–18.1	10.6 9.9–11.4	7.8 7.2–8.5	4.2 3.8–4.6	3.0 2.8–3.3	2.1 1.9–2.3	2.2 2.0–2.4	0.8 0.7–0.9
Sep 15	33.5 32.1–34.8	17.5 16.7–18.5	17.9 16.9–18.8	11.0 10.3–11.7	7.8 7.3–8.4	4.0 3.7–4.3	3.1 2.9–3.4	2.2 2.0–2.4	2.2 2.0–2.5	0.8 0.7–0.9
Sep 8	34.1 32.9–35.1	16.4 15.7–17.2	18.2 17.4–19.0	11.3 10.7–11.8	7.7 7.2–8.2	3.8 3.5–4.1	3.2 2.9–3.5	2.2 2.0–2.4	2.3 2.1–2.6	0.8 0.7–0.9
Sep 1	33.3 32.1–34.2	16.4 15.7–17.2	18.7 17.9–19.6	11.7 11.2–12.3	7.6 7.1–8.0	3.7 3.4–4.0	3.2 2.9–3.5	2.2 2.0–2.4	2.4 2.2–2.7	0.8 0.7–1.0
Aug 25	34.0 32.7–35.5	16.0 15.0–16.8	18.3 17.2–19.3	11.8 11.0–12.6	7.6 7.0–8.2	3.6 3.3–4.0	3.2 2.9–3.5	2.2 1.9–2.4	2.5 2.2–2.7	0.9 0.7–1.0
Aug 18	34.6 32.9–36.5	16.0 14.8–17.3	18.2 16.9–19.5	11.2 10.2–12.2	7.7 7.0–8.3	3.6 3.2–4.0	3.3 2.9–3.7	2.1 1.9–2.4	2.4 2.1–2.8	0.9 0.7–1.0
Aug 11	34.0 31.5–36.3	16.1 14.6–17.6	18.5 17.0–20.3	11.1 9.9–12.3	7.8 7.1–8.9	3.6 3.2–4.1	3.4 2.9–3.9	2.1 1.8–2.4	2.4 2.1–2.8	0.9 0.7–1.0
Aug 4	33.5 30.5–36.0	16.3 14.8–17.9	18.8 17.0–20.7	10.9 9.7–12.1	8.0 7.1–9.1	3.7 3.2–4.2	3.4 3.0–3.9	2.1 1.8–2.4	2.4 2.1–2.8	0.9 0.7–1.0
Jul 28	32.6 30.8–34.7	16.4 15.1–17.7	19.3 17.8–20.6	10.7 9.7–11.7	8.3 7.3–9.2	3.8 3.3–4.3	3.6 3.1–4.1	2.1 1.7–2.4	2.4 2.1–2.8	0.9 0.7–1.0
Jul 21	32.9 30.8–34.8	16.1 14.8–17.4	19.4 17.9–20.7	10.5 9.6–11.5	8.4 7.6–9.2	3.8 3.3–4.2	3.6 3.2–4.1	2.0 1.7–2.3	2.4 2.1–2.8	0.9 0.7–1.0
Jul 14	34.1 32.2–35.9	15.4 14.2–16.6	19.3 18.1–20.6	10.3 9.5–11.1	8.4 7.6–9.3	3.7 3.3–4.1	3.6 3.2–4.0	1.9 1.7–2.2	2.4 2.1–2.7	0.9 0.7–1.0
Jul 7	34.8 33.1–36.4	14.7 13.7–15.7	19.2 18.0–20.3	10.3 9.5–11.0	8.5 7.9–9.3	3.8 3.4–4.2	3.6 3.3–4.0	1.9 1.6–2.2	2.4 2.2–2.8	0.9 0.7–1.0
Jun 30	34.0 32.1–36.0	14.3 13.0–15.3	19.3 17.8–20.8	10.4 9.5–11.5	8.9 8.0–9.8	4.0 3.6–4.5	3.7 3.2–4.1	1.9 1.6–2.3	2.6 2.3–2.9	0.9 0.7–1.1
Jun 23	33.3 31.5–35.1	14.0 12.7–15.1	19.3 17.9–20.8	10.6 9.6–11.6	9.3 8.4–10.3	4.2 3.8–4.7	3.7 3.3–4.2	2.0 1.7–2.3	2.7 2.3–3.0	0.9 0.7–1.1
Jun 16	33.0 30.5–35.6	13.8 12.5–15.1	19.0 17.1–20.8	11.1 9.9–12.2	9.3 8.2–10.6	4.3 3.8–4.9	3.8 3.3–4.3	2.0 1.7–2.4	2.8 2.4–3.2	0.9 0.7–1.1
Jun 9	32.8 30.3–35.3	13.7 12.6–15.1	18.8 17.0–20.3	11.3 10.2–12.4	9.4 8.3–10.4	4.4 3.9–5.0	3.8 3.3–4.3	2.0 1.7–2.3	2.8 2.5–3.3	0.9 0.7–1.1
Jun 2	32.5 30.4–34.6	13.7 12.5–15.1	18.8 17.2–20.2	11.3 10.2–12.4	9.6 8.6–10.6	4.6 4.0–5.1	3.8 3.4–4.3	2.0 1.8–2.4	2.9 2.5–3.3	0.9 0.7–1.1
May 26	32.2 30.5–33.7	13.6 12.7–14.8	18.7 17.3–19.9	11.4 10.3–12.3	9.8 8.9–10.7	4.8 4.2–5.3	3.8 3.3–4.3	2.0 1.7–2.4	2.9 2.5–3.4	0.9 0.7–1.1
May 19	32.2 29.9–34.5	13.4 12.2–14.7	18.6 17.1–20.3	11.4 10.3–12.6	9.8 8.8–11.0	4.8 4.2–5.5	3.9 3.4–4.4	2.0 1.7–2.3	2.9 2.5–3.4	0.9 0.7–1.1
May 12	32.3 29.6–35.0	13.1 11.9–14.5	18.8 17.0–20.5	11.4 10.1–12.7	9.9 8.7–11.1	4.8 4.2–5.4	3.9 3.4–4.5	2.0 1.7–2.4	3.0 2.5–3.5	0.9 0.7–1.1
May 5	32.3 29.9–34.4	12.5 11.3–14.2	19.1 17.4–20.8	11.4 10.1–12.7	10.1 8.8–11.1	4.8 4.2–5.5	4.0 3.4–4.7	2.0 1.7–2.4	3.0 2.5–3.6	0.9 0.7–1.1

Candidate scenarios

How to read this chart

What you see

A|BEach button sets a lineup: the most probable one by default, then variants.
The light bar: the first-round share in 80% of the simulations.
The dark bar: the middle half of the simulations.
The tick: the median, the “middle” share.
The hollow dot: today’s polling average, for comparison.

Where the number comes from

Why do the bars sit away from the dots? In the 1995–2022 presidential elections, 10 of the 11 candidates polling at 20% or more five months out fell back. The model therefore pulls the front-runners towards the field. With 173 days to go, a front-runner keeps about 64% of their lead over the field; the effect fades out by election day.
Why so wide? Two sources of chance, calibrated on history: what can move during the campaign (6.4 points for a 20% candidate), and the polling error on election day (1.7 points). Their distribution makes big surprises more frequent than a normal one would.
Scenario or main forecast? A scenario does not draw the candidacies: it shows what would happen if this lineup were the one on the ballot. It is simulated 20,000 times with the same draws as the main forecast: a difference between two scenarios comes from the lineup alone.

Today

Le Pen 35.5% in the polls 27.1% on average in the simulations, between 17 and 38% in 80% of them.

Simulated first-round vote share, in % of valid votes.
Candidate	Median	50% of simulations	80% of simulations	Polling average today
Marine Le Pen	26.7	21.6–32.1	17.1–37.5	35.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	15.7	11.9–20.3	8.6–25.6	17.0%
Édouard Philippe	14.7	11.0–19.4	8.1–24.7	15.7%
Raphaël Glucksmann	13.1	9.5–17.6	6.7–23.2	13.5%
Bruno Retailleau	8.4	5.7–12.0	3.8–16.6	7.3%
Éric Zemmour	5.3	3.5–7.7	2.3–10.8	4.2%
Marine Tondelier	3.0	2.0–4.4	1.3–6.3	2.4%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	2.3	1.5–3.5	1.0–5.1	1.9%
Fabien Roussel	2.2	1.4–3.3	0.9–4.9	1.8%
Nathalie Arthaud	0.8	0.5–1.2	0.3–1.9	0.7%

The bars show each candidate’s election-day vote share across the simulations; the dot shows today’s polling average. The simulations pull candidates towards each other: in past campaigns, 10 of the 11 candidates polling at 20% or more five months out ended up lower.

Chance of making the runoff and of winning, in %, under the selected scenario.
Candidate	Makes runoff	Win
Le Pen	88%	80%
Philippe	34%	10%
Glucksmann	26%	6%
Retailleau	9%	3%
Mélenchon	40%	<1%
Zemmour	3%	<1%
Tondelier	1%	<1%
Dupont-Aignan	<1%	<1%
Arthaud	<1%	<1%
Roussel	<1%	<1%

Averages and ranges

First-round polling average and election-day forecast, in % of valid votes; chances in %.
Candidate	Average	80% range	95% range	Election day (mean)	Election day (80%)	Makes the runoff	Tops the first round
Le Pen RN	35.5	33.0–37.9	31.7–39.1	27.1	17.1–37.5	88%	65%
Mélenchon LFI	17.0	15.5–18.6	14.7–19.5	16.7	8.6–25.6	40%	12%
Philippe Horizons	15.7	14.2–17.2	13.5–18.2	15.8	8.1–24.7	34%	10%
Glucksmann Place publique	13.5	12.2–14.8	11.5–15.5	14.3	6.7–23.2	26%	8%
Retailleau LR	7.3	6.5–8.2	6.1–8.6	9.7	3.8–16.6	9%	3%
Zemmour Reconquête	4.2	3.7–4.7	3.5–5.0	6.2	2.3–10.8	3%	1%
Tondelier Les Écologistes	2.4	2.1–2.8	2.0–3.0	3.6	1.3–6.3	1%	<1%
Dupont-Aignan Debout la France	1.9	1.7–2.2	1.5–2.4	2.8	1.0–5.1	<1%	<1%
Roussel PCF	1.8	1.6–2.1	1.5–2.3	2.7	0.9–4.9	<1%	<1%
Arthaud LO	0.7	0.6–0.8	0.5–0.9	1.0	0.3–1.9	<1%	<1%

Possible runoffs

How to read this chart

What you see

%The percentage on the right: the share of simulations in which this runoff happens.
The split bar: each finalist’s expected share if this runoff happens. The bracket: where the split falls in 80% of the simulations. The tick in the middle: 50%.
The 100-square grid: who wins this runoff, out of 100 simulations in which it happens.

Where the number comes from

Who qualifies? In each simulation, the top two of the first round. Each runoff’s frequency follows.
Two sources, blended by precision: the polls of this runoff, if it was tested at least three times, and a vote-transfer model: voters of eliminated candidates split between the finalists by political proximity, some abstain. This model misses polled runoffs by about 4.5 points. A runoff polled often mostly follows its polls; one never polled rests on transfers alone.
The first round matters: a finalist who beats expectations in the first round has more reserves. A runoff-specific error and drift, calibrated on the 1995–2022 runoffs, are added.

Le Penvs.Mélenchon 33% chance of this runoff

64.5%between 59 and 70% 35.5%between 30 and 41%
Le Penvs.Philippe 27% of simulations

54.3%between 48 and 60% 45.7%between 40 and 52%
Le Penvs.Glucksmann 20% of simulations

55.3%between 49 and 61% 44.7%between 39 and 51%

Other runoffs: 20% of simulations

Runoff polls

How to read this chart

What you see

1·2·3One panel per runoff listed above, in the same order, with the same candidate named first.
The line and its band: the share of the candidate named first in the panel’s title (the line in their colour), in the runoff polls of the last 12 months, and the 80% range of that average.
The dots: the polls. The horizontal line: 50%; above it, that candidate wins.
Empty axes: this runoff was never polled over the period.

Where the number comes from

Same method as the first round: polls weighted by recency, sample size and the pollster’s rating, smoothed by a Kalman filter.
The polls alone. The runoff forecast above adds the vote-transfer model and everything that can move before the vote, so the two figures can differ.

Le Pen – Mélenchon

21 polls · latest Oct 22

Le Pen – Mélenchon: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote, in %, in the polling average and in each poll.
Date	Average	80% range	Poll (pollster)
Oct 27, 2026	69.3	66.3–72.1	—
Oct 22, 2026	69.4	68.6–70.2	69 (OpinionWay)
Oct 21, 2026	69.4	68.6–70.2	70 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Oct 19, 2026	68.2	67.3–69.1	68 (Ifop)
Oct 16, 2026	68.2	67.3–69.1	69 (Elabe)
Oct 15, 2026	68.2	67.3–69.1	68 (YouGov)
Oct 14, 2026	68.2	67.3–69.1	68 (OpinionWay)
Oct 8, 2026	67.2	66.2–68.2	67 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Oct 7, 2026	67.2	66.2–68.2	68 (Odoxa)
Sep 24, 2026	67.6	66.3–68.9	69 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Sep 21, 2026	66.2	64.2–68.2	64 (YouGov)
Sep 10, 2026	66.9	65.6–68.2	67 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Sep 10, 2026	66.9	65.6–68.2	67 (OpinionWay)
Sep 3, 2026	67.1	65.5–68.6	66 (OpinionWay)
Aug 28, 2026	67.9	66.6–69.1	69.5 (Elabe)
Aug 25, 2026	67.9	66.6–69.1	67 (Ifop)
Aug 19, 2026	67.7	66.6–68.7	68 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Jul 24, 2026	62.7	60.7–64.6	61 (Cluster17)
Jul 10, 2026	67.8	67.0–68.7	67.5 (Elabe)
Jul 8, 2026	67.8	67.0–68.7	67 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Jul 8, 2026	67.8	67.0–68.7	70 (Ifop)
May 27, 2026	67.0	65.8–68.1	67 (Toluna Harris Interactive)

Le Pen – Philippe

22 polls · latest Oct 22

Le Pen – Philippe: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote, in %, in the polling average and in each poll.
Date	Average	80% range	Poll (pollster)
Oct 27, 2026	56.2	52.8–59.4	—
Oct 22, 2026	56.3	55.4–57.3	56 (OpinionWay)
Oct 21, 2026	56.3	55.4–57.3	57 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Oct 19, 2026	54.1	53.1–55.1	56 (Ifop)
Oct 16, 2026	54.1	53.1–55.1	52.5 (Elabe)
Oct 15, 2026	54.1	53.1–55.1	52 (YouGov)
Oct 14, 2026	54.1	53.1–55.1	56 (OpinionWay)
Oct 8, 2026	55.4	54.3–56.5	56 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Oct 7, 2026	55.4	54.3–56.5	53 (Odoxa)
Sep 24, 2026	56.1	54.7–57.5	57 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Sep 21, 2026	55.2	53.0–57.4	55 (YouGov)
Sep 10, 2026	54.4	52.9–55.8	55 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Sep 10, 2026	54.4	52.9–55.8	55 (OpinionWay)
Sep 3, 2026	52.5	50.8–54.2	52 (OpinionWay)
Aug 28, 2026	52.4	51.0–53.8	52.5 (Elabe)
Aug 25, 2026	52.4	51.0–53.8	52 (Ifop)
Aug 19, 2026	54.4	53.3–55.6	55 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Jul 24, 2026	52.1	50.1–54.1	52 (Cluster17)
Jul 10, 2026	52.0	51.0–52.9	52 (Elabe)
Jul 8, 2026	52.0	51.0–52.9	51 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Jul 8, 2026	52.0	51.0–52.9	54 (Ifop)
May 27, 2026	51.8	50.5–53.0	52 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Mar 27, 2026	47.3	45.1–49.5	47 (Elabe)

Le Pen – Glucksmann

11 polls · latest Oct 22

Le Pen – Glucksmann: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote, in %, in the polling average and in each poll.
Date	Average	80% range	Poll (pollster)
Oct 27, 2026	57.2	53.8–60.4	—
Oct 22, 2026	57.8	56.9–58.7	56 (OpinionWay)
Oct 21, 2026	57.8	56.9–58.7	59 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Oct 19, 2026	55.3	54.3–56.4	57 (Ifop)
Oct 16, 2026	55.3	54.3–56.4	53.5 (Elabe)
Oct 15, 2026	55.3	54.3–56.4	55 (YouGov)
Oct 14, 2026	55.3	54.3–56.4	56 (OpinionWay)
Sep 21, 2026	58.3	55.6–60.9	59 (YouGov)
Aug 28, 2026	56.0	54.6–57.4	57 (Elabe)
Aug 25, 2026	56.0	54.6–57.4	55 (Ifop)
Jul 24, 2026	56.5	54.5–58.5	56 (Cluster17)
Jul 10, 2026	—		58.5 (Elabe)

Bardella – Mélenchon

3 polls · latest May 27

Bardella – Mélenchon: Bardella’s share of the runoff vote, in %, in the polling average and in each poll.
Date	Average	80% range	Poll (pollster)
Oct 27, 2026	68.1	52.9–80.2	—
May 27, 2026	68.1	66.9–69.2	68 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Mar 27, 2026	71.5	69.6–73.3	71.5 (Elabe)
Nov 20, 2025	73.8	72.0–75.6	74 (Odoxa)

Bardella – Philippe

5 polls · latest May 27

Bardella – Philippe: Bardella’s share of the runoff vote, in %, in the polling average and in each poll.
Date	Average	80% range	Poll (pollster)
Oct 27, 2026	53.7	38.0–68.7	—
May 27, 2026	53.7	52.5–54.9	54 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
May 21, 2026	52.3	50.4–54.1	52 (Odoxa)
Mar 27, 2026	48.4	46.6–50.1	48.5 (Elabe)
Mar 26, 2026	48.4	46.6–50.1	48 (Odoxa)
Nov 20, 2025	53.0	50.9–55.0	53 (Odoxa)

Bardella – Glucksmann

2 polls · latest Mar 27

Bardella – Glucksmann: Bardella’s share of the runoff vote, in %, in the polling average and in each poll.
Date	Average	80% range	Poll (pollster)
Mar 27, 2026	—		58.5 (Elabe)
Nov 20, 2025	—		58 (Odoxa)

Le Pen – Attal

14 polls · latest Oct 19

Le Pen – Attal: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote, in %, in the polling average and in each poll.
Date	Average	80% range	Poll (pollster)
Oct 27, 2026	57.7	53.7–61.6	—
Oct 19, 2026	55.8	54.4–57.3	58 (Ifop)
Oct 15, 2026	55.8	54.4–57.3	55 (YouGov)
Sep 21, 2026	56.5	54.2–58.7	57 (YouGov)
Sep 10, 2026	55.9	54.3–57.4	56 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Sep 3, 2026	55.6	53.9–57.3	55 (OpinionWay)
Aug 28, 2026	55.4	54.0–56.8	57 (Elabe)
Aug 25, 2026	55.4	54.0–56.8	54 (Ifop)
Aug 19, 2026	56.6	55.5–57.8	57 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Jul 24, 2026	55.7	53.7–57.7	56 (Cluster17)
Jul 10, 2026	54.8	53.9–55.7	54 (Elabe)
Jul 8, 2026	54.8	53.9–55.7	55 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Jul 8, 2026	54.8	53.9–55.7	55 (Ifop)
May 27, 2026	53.9	52.7–55.1	54 (Toluna Harris Interactive)
Mar 27, 2026	51.0	48.8–53.2	51 (Elabe)

Latest polls

How to read this table

What you see

%The figures published by the pollsters, as they are, in % of valid votes. No adjustment is applied in this table.
BEach row: fieldwork, pollster and its rating, sponsor, sample, method, link to the filing with the Commission des sondages.
↓“Show all polls” opens the full table, its filters and the Weight column: each poll’s exact share of today’s average.

Where the number comes from

Recency: a recent poll weighs more. Those from the last 14 days carry 88% of the average.
Sample: more respondents, more weight, up to 3,000.
Pollster rating: weight multiplied by 0.8 to 1.2.
No double counting: waves from the same pollster less than 10 days apart share their weight, and the lineups tested in one poll count as one observation.
Margin of error of a 1,000-person poll: from ±1.4 points for a 5% candidate to ±3.1 points at 50%.

First-round polls. In % of valid votes, as published. For each poll: pollster, sponsor, fieldwork dates, sample, method and a link to the notice. Approximate margin of error for 1,000 respondents: 1.4 to 3.1 points depending on the share (assuming random sampling, 95% confidence).
Pollfieldwork · pollster · sponsor · sample	Le Pen	Mélenchon	Philippe	Glucksmann	Retailleau	Lisnard	Attal	Zemmour	Tondelier	Ruffin	Dupont-Aignan	Roussel	Arthaud	Weight
Oct 21–22 OpinionWay B CNews · 973 resp. · online · notice ↗	36	16	12	13	6	6	4	4	1	—	1	1	0.5	12.7%
Oct 21–22 Ipsos B+ Le Parisien · 1,500 resp. · online · notice ↗	32	17	14	13	5.5	6.5	—	4	3.5	—	1.5	2.5	0.5	4.5%
Oct 19–22 Cluster17 B 3,000 resp. · online · source ↗	33	18.5	16	13	8	—	—	4	2	—	3	2	0.5	4.5%
Oct 19–21 Toluna Harris Interactive B+ 2,094 resp. · online · notice ↗	35	17	13	12	6	—	5	6	2	—	2	1	1	3.2%
Oct 17–19 Ifop B− 1,928 resp. · online · notice ↗	34	15	12	12	5.5	5.5	4	3	2.5	1.5	1.5	2	0	1.7%
Oct 14–16 Elabe A− 1,701 resp. · online · notice ↗	31.5	15.5	15.5	15	6.5	5.5	—	3	2.5	—	3	1.5	0.5	1.5%
Oct 12–15 YouGov C+ Le HuffPost · 1,094 resp. · online · notice ↗	35	13	8	12	5	4	6	4	5	2	2	2	0	1.0%
Oct 14–15 Cluster17 B Le Point · 1,263 resp. · online · notice ↗	31	18	17	11	7	7	—	3	2	—	2	1.5	0.5	0.8%
Oct 13–14 OpinionWay B CNews · 1,043 resp. · online · notice ↗	35	15	12	13	6	4	5	5	2	—	1	1	1	2.8%
Oct 13–14 OpinionWay B 1,001 resp. · online · notice ↗	35	14	12	13	7	—	7	4	3	—	2	3	0.5	0.8%

Show all polls (75)

Pollster ratings

How to read this table

What you see

AThe rating, from A+ to C. B is the average pollster; a dash means too short a track record.
−0.3Relative error, in points: the pollster’s past error minus the expected one; negative when it missed by less than its competitors in the same elections, so better. The rating divides it by the average poll’s own error (see the rating scale under the table).
+0.4Bias left, centre, right, far right: the pollster’s past miss for each bloc, relative to the other pollsters; positive when it overstated the bloc.
×1.1Weight: the multiplier applied to its polls in the average.

Where the number comes from

A track record: 541 polls published in the 60 days before past elections (presidential since 1995, European since 2009, legislative since 2017), compared with the official results.
A fair comparison: each error is compared with the other pollsters’ in the same election at the same time. In 2022 they all underestimated Mélenchon: the rating keeps only what sets a pollster apart.
Caution: with few polls, the rating is pulled towards the average; under 5 polls, no rating and a slightly lower weight.
Effect: the rating sets the weight, from ×0.8 to ×1.2. The bloc bias is published but does not adjust the 2027 polls: methods change from one election to the next.

Pollster ratings. A positive bias means the pollster overstated the bloc relative to other pollsters.
Pollster	Rating	Mean error (pts)	Relative error	Bias left	Bias centre	Bias right	Bias far right	Elections rated	Polls rated	2027 polls	Weight
Ipsos	B+A− to B−	2.03	−0.03	+0.1	−0.1	+0.3	−0.3	13	80	4	1.06
Toluna Harris Interactive	B+A to B−	2.05	−0.05	−0.2	−0.1	−0.2	+0.4	9	60	16	1.09
LH2	B−B to C	2.15	+0.07	+0.4	+0.2	−0.4	−0.2	3	16	0	0.89
Verian	B+A to B−	2.22	−0.05	+0.1	−0.1	0.0	0.0	9	53	2	1.09
Odoxa	A−A+ to B+	2.25	−0.08	−0.2	+0.3	−0.3	+0.1	5	16	5	1.16
YouGov	C+	2.27	+0.14	−0.4	−0.3	−0.5	+0.7	4	5	2	0.79
Elabe	A−A+ to B+	2.32	−0.09	−0.4	+0.2	0.0	−0.2	7	34	6	1.18
CSA	C+B− to C	2.37	+0.12	+0.1	+0.2	−0.7	+0.5	5	33	0	0.82
Ifop	B−B to C+	2.38	+0.06	0.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.3	12	101	21	0.91
BVA	B−B+ to C+	2.39	+0.04	0.0	−0.1	−0.1	−0.1	11	49	0	0.94
Cluster17	BA to C+	2.39	−0.02	+0.6	−0.3	−0.1	−0.8	4	28	7	1.04
OpinionWay	BA− to B−	2.58	−0.01	−0.1	+0.1	+0.6	−0.2	10	61	12	1.01
AtlasIntel	—	Limited track record: default weight						1	1	0	0.83
Le Terrain	—	Limited track record: default weight						1	2	0	0.83
Viavoice	—	Limited track record: default weight						2	2	0	0.83

AExpected error at least 7% below the average pollster’s (A+, A, A−)
BBetween 7% below and 10% above the average (B+, B, B−)
CMore than 10% above the average (C+, C)
—Limited track record: default weight

Methodology

This site tracks every published voting-intention poll for the 2027 presidential election since March 2023: 75 first-round polls, covering 319 candidate lineups, and 31 runoff polls as of October 22, 2026. The list comes from Wikipedia and is checked against the filings pollsters must make with France’s polling regulator, the Commission des sondages. Each poll is shown with its pollster, sponsor, fieldwork dates, sample size and method.

French pollsters often test several lineups of candidates in the same poll. Each lineup is mapped onto a reference field: the declared candidates that pollsters test regularly. When a candidate is missing from a lineup, we estimate where their voters go from polls that tested both lineups on the same respondents.

The average weights each poll by how recent it is, its sample size and its pollster’s rating. It is smoothed over time, and the band around each line shows the uncertainty in today’s average.

Pollsters are rated on their track record across 13 elections: the presidential elections from 1995 to 2022, the European elections from 2009 to 2024 and the legislative elections from 2017 to 2024. The gaps between them are small: weights range from 0.8 to 1.2 and barely move the average.

The model runs the election 20,000 times. Each simulation starts from the current average, with the front-runners pulled back towards the pack: in past campaigns, 10 of the 11 candidates polling at 20% or more five months out ended up lower. It then adds two sources of uncertainty: how opinion may shift before the vote, and the error all pollsters share on election day. Both are calibrated on the presidential elections from 1995 to 2022, for major and minor candidates alike. The top two in each simulation go through to the runoff, which is decided by the head-to-head polls or, for a matchup that has never been polled, by estimated vote transfers.

A candidate’s chance of winning is the share of simulations they win.

The field is not official yet, and the headline figure accounts for that. Each simulation first draws who is on the ballot, based on each candidate’s chance of running, and never keeps two candidates from the same camp when only one of them can run, such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Results are then grouped by camp. These chances are editorial estimates based on past elections. Since 1995, six months before the first round, 96% of the most-polled candidates made it onto the ballot, as did 75% of the minor candidates polled regularly and 30% of the figures polled only occasionally. The scenarios further down each assume a fixed field, the most likely one by default, and first-round polling is mapped onto that field. Each candidate’s chance of running, and the reasoning behind it, is published with the data.

In past presidential elections, the model’s 80% range contained the result 79% of the time five months before the vote, 84% three months out, 81% one month out and 84% a week out. These rates rest on six elections and about thirty candidates at each point, so a gap of 10 points from the target is within the range of chance. In 2017 and 2022, runoff polls overstated the far right by 3 to 4 points. The model does not adjust for this, as there are too few elections to go on; if it happened again, Marine Le Pen’s chance of winning would be a few points lower.

The forecast is updated every night. Under France’s law of 19 July 1977, no poll is published or discussed on this site on the day before or the day of each round, and the forecast is frozen during that time. The simulations shown here are calculations based on published polls.

Forecast sensitivity

Chance of winning under different model assumptions, in %
If…	Le Pen	Bardella	Philippe	Glucksmann	Retailleau
Baseline assumptions	70%	11%	9%	6%	2%
Campaign drift halved	75%	12%	6%	4%	1%
Campaign drift multiplied by 1.5	66%	11%	10%	7%	2%
No drift (opinion stays put until election day)	78%	13%	5%	3%	<1%
Systematic polling error multiplied by 1.5	69%	11%	9%	7%	1%
Normal tails instead of Student’s t	73%	11%	7%	6%	1%
0.5 correlation between candidates of the same bloc	70%	11%	9%	6%	1%
Runoff error and drift multiplied by 1.5	65%	10%	10%	8%	2%
First-round shocks carried into the runoff, not capped at its calibrated drift	61%	9%	11%	9%	3%
Runoff polls ignored (vote-transfer model only)	62%	11%	12%	10%	2%
Most likely field, no uncertainty over who runs	80%	<1%	10%	6%	3%
Every declared, regularly polled candidate runs	75%	<1%	10%	6%	3%
Twice the risk that candidates drop out	62%	26%	5%	5%	<1%
Half the risk that candidates drop out	72%	5%	9%	7%	2%
Election-day shares centred on today’s average, no uncertainty about reversion to the mean	79%	14%	4%	2%	<1%
Centred on today’s average, reversion to the mean drawn in either direction (raw shares)	79%	14%	4%	3%	<1%
Shares revert towards the field average (log scale), rate estimated without shrinkage	70%	11%	8%	6%	1%
Shares revert towards the field average (raw shares)	75%	13%	5%	4%	1%
If the 2017 and 2022 runoff polling miss recurs (far right overstated in the runoff, average error at this point in the race)	66%	10%	11%	8%	2%

Polls: Wikipedia (Wikipedia contributors, CC BY-SA 4.0), checked against the notices of the Commission des sondages.
2022 history: NSPPolls (MIT license).
Official results: Conseil constitutionnel; French Interior Ministry (data.gouv.fr, Licence Ouverte).

France 2027 Election

Wins out of 100 simulated elections

How the forecast has changed

First-round polling average

Candidate scenarios

Possible runoffs

Runoff polls

Latest polls

Pollster ratings

Methodology